Projections
As you can see in the population pyramid to the left, Nigeria's population is expected to explode. Nigeria is in stage 2 of the DTM, meaning that it has a high birth rate, decreasing death rate, but increasing population. The projection is that, by 2060, there will be 650 million people in Nigeria. (Africa News Service, 2010)
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Nigeria's population query is extremely complex, as certain factors act as both causes and effects in this population boom.
The cycle begins with Lack of Education, Unemployment, and Poverty. These 3 factors are the major causes of population explosion in Nigeria. However, because of this population explosion, strain is put on the economy, there is more competition for jobs, and a high youth unemployment rate. And naturally, when there is not enough work, poverty and violence consumes the population, which often means education is no longer a priority or possibility. And once education is out of the picture, everything but having children seems much more unlikely.
Poverty
A young boy hides in a toxic waste barrel in Lagos, Nigeria.
Poverty in itself is a complex issue. It can be caused by a variety of factors, such as corruption, poor health and education, unemployment, war, political instability, and crime. In Nigeria however, poverty is mainly caused by corruption and an insufficient economy, with influences from unemployment, affordable housing, access to quality education, and access to health services. In Nigeria, approximately 70% of the population is below the poverty line. (CIA World Factbook, 2007)
Unemployment
Marchers display placards during a Labour Day parade in Lagos May 1, 2010.
Unemployment is yet another complex issue that is adding to the population explosion in Nigeria. It is often caused by poor infrastructure or a lack of diversity in the economy. In Nigeria's case, it is both of these factors.
Unemployment in Nigeria is running at around 19.7 percent on average, but almost half of 15-25 year olds living in urban areas are jobless, Finance Minister Olusegun Aganga said on Friday. (IB Times, 2010)
What is happening is that Nigeria spends 80% of its income on cost of governance. (Africa News Service, 2010) And about 60% of the remaining 20% set aside for infrastructure is lost through corruption. So because of this, money is squandered on anything but helping the job-less. And these people, especially youth, who have nothing to do are either having children, or are turning to gangs, crime, and violence.
To view a Gapminder Animation of Employment Rate vs Total Population, click here.
Lack of Education and Contraception
Teenage mother with her two sons.
Probably the most influential factors when it comes to the population explosion, lack of education and lack of contraception are bringing on not only a higher birth rate, but more teenage pregnancies, as well as more strain on the health care system (through transmittance of disease).
In Nigeria, it is generally not acceptable to speak about sex, which may be a prevalent reason why education about sex and contraceptives is rare. A study from the New York-based Guttmacher Institute found that in 2003, 16% of pregnancies among girls and women aged 15-24 had been unintended, compared with 10% in 1990. (BBC News, 2009) They determined low use of contraceptives was partially to blame on top of the Nigerian authorities, who had failed to promote sexual health information for young Nigerians. The problem they found was that even though the proportion of women with some secondary education had increased, the use of modern contraceptive methods among sexually active adolescent women in Nigeria had changed very little, from 4% to 8%. (BBC News, 2009) Also in that time, the proportion of sexually active young women who knew where to access family planning services nearly halved, from 32% to 18%, meaning that the wrong type of information was being spread. (BBC News, 2009) Nearly one-third of sexually active women aged 15-24 had had an unmet need for modern contraception in 2003, found the study. (BBC News, 2009)
In Nigeria, it is generally not acceptable to speak about sex, which may be a prevalent reason why education about sex and contraceptives is rare. A study from the New York-based Guttmacher Institute found that in 2003, 16% of pregnancies among girls and women aged 15-24 had been unintended, compared with 10% in 1990. (BBC News, 2009) They determined low use of contraceptives was partially to blame on top of the Nigerian authorities, who had failed to promote sexual health information for young Nigerians. The problem they found was that even though the proportion of women with some secondary education had increased, the use of modern contraceptive methods among sexually active adolescent women in Nigeria had changed very little, from 4% to 8%. (BBC News, 2009) Also in that time, the proportion of sexually active young women who knew where to access family planning services nearly halved, from 32% to 18%, meaning that the wrong type of information was being spread. (BBC News, 2009) Nearly one-third of sexually active women aged 15-24 had had an unmet need for modern contraception in 2003, found the study. (BBC News, 2009)
Other Factors
Polygamous Nigerian family.
- Customs lean towards large families: Very difficult to steer away from cultural beliefs.
- Polygamy is very common: Leads to massive families, as a man can have many wives, each with their own set of children. (View Picture left)
- Megaslums and Rapid Urbanization: Becomes a population growth hotspot. (See video below)
